Charts
sample 1
http://screencast.com/t/ZjY1ZWE2Y
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
an edge
Christopher Columbus showed that the world was not flat and he didn't sail over the edge.
Well, I do have an edge. How do I know? Firstly, my trades are consistently profitable and secondly, what I do works in all liquid markets where I can get the information I need to see the order flow.
Today I am posting some extra charts of non index futures markets, the Euro FX and the Bund. By coincidence, at the present time both these markets work for me with 5 tick range bars.
Why should I care if I'm doing fine with the markets I am trading? Well, I was chatting with Kiki about trading from Australia or from Tokyo (she has a huge interest in everything Japanese). I did trade from Oz for a few months in 2003, when the Hang Seng future was the main tradable market. Now, there is the Euro FX, Kospi, Nifty and others. Kiki wants to travel and trade. So an edge is an edge is an edge.
Let me note here that if volatility changes substantially, the methodology will not change but I may change from the 5 ticks range and my stop loss and first scale out would then change too. I know the next question is: how do you know that you have the change? The short answer is: when you see the increased volatility has arrived. The longer answer is for another day.
gb
Well, I do have an edge. How do I know? Firstly, my trades are consistently profitable and secondly, what I do works in all liquid markets where I can get the information I need to see the order flow.
Today I am posting some extra charts of non index futures markets, the Euro FX and the Bund. By coincidence, at the present time both these markets work for me with 5 tick range bars.
Why should I care if I'm doing fine with the markets I am trading? Well, I was chatting with Kiki about trading from Australia or from Tokyo (she has a huge interest in everything Japanese). I did trade from Oz for a few months in 2003, when the Hang Seng future was the main tradable market. Now, there is the Euro FX, Kospi, Nifty and others. Kiki wants to travel and trade. So an edge is an edge is an edge.
Let me note here that if volatility changes substantially, the methodology will not change but I may change from the 5 ticks range and my stop loss and first scale out would then change too. I know the next question is: how do you know that you have the change? The short answer is: when you see the increased volatility has arrived. The longer answer is for another day.
gb
Measureing order flow AND trading it
Whether "THEY" are buying or selling is critical to market direction, for the next bar or for the next sequence. Data feeds now contain the information required to harness this information.
I use two main tools for this. The first one looks at each bar by bar and calculates whether trades take place at the bid price or the ask, and how much. Sellers hitting the bid in size has a greater impact on price than a passive seller offering at the ask, even in size. If there is such a passive seller, then the market usually front runs the order by hitting the bids.
The second tool looks at the cumulative effect of the first tool and also smooths it with an average.
These are the last two indicators on my charts. Looking what is happening as the order flow is revealed provides a great edge over the other electronic traders. Of course understanding what you are seeing is critical, if you are to make use of this information.
There is a very simple technique of using the shorter of my moving averages, which I perceive as the center of value at that moment, and trading crosses or bounces from it when confirmed by order flow. You can make a good living off this one setup alone.
The chart below shows some of these trades. Note, the time on this chart is GMT = NY Time + 4 now
I use two main tools for this. The first one looks at each bar by bar and calculates whether trades take place at the bid price or the ask, and how much. Sellers hitting the bid in size has a greater impact on price than a passive seller offering at the ask, even in size. If there is such a passive seller, then the market usually front runs the order by hitting the bids.
The second tool looks at the cumulative effect of the first tool and also smooths it with an average.
These are the last two indicators on my charts. Looking what is happening as the order flow is revealed provides a great edge over the other electronic traders. Of course understanding what you are seeing is critical, if you are to make use of this information.
There is a very simple technique of using the shorter of my moving averages, which I perceive as the center of value at that moment, and trading crosses or bounces from it when confirmed by order flow. You can make a good living off this one setup alone.
The chart below shows some of these trades. Note, the time on this chart is GMT = NY Time + 4 now
The pre-marker preparation is hugely important. I need to know where the levels are that I may need to do something about – put on a trade, take a profit or scale in or out. I use Market Profile for my levels as MP is a diagram of the volume for the day.
I first split the Profile into its distributions. My software displays the volume Points of Control (POC) as well as the Value Area Highs (VAH) and Value Area Lows (VAL). I also use the extremes where relevant. You can see that the POC of 27 Oct stopped the market on 29 Oct so knowing that it was there was important.
Next, I try and visualize the type of day that may unfold. For example, for today, 30 Oct, I envisioned a normal day with possible high of around 2845 and a low around 2790. I also Noted that there are single prints beginning at 2791 and that if selling order flow is revealed, it is likely that the market runs down to 2760.
I am writing this part of the blog before trading begins on 30 Oct. I will continue after the market has revealed itself.
WOW!! This really went according to plan. Again, as an early bird trading from Europe - about 9.30 GMT, 4.30 am on the U.S. east coast, I went short near the VAH of 29 Oct. as the selling showed itself. Looking at the charts below:
There was basically a failure at the VAH, then a lot of what looks like chop in the MP chart until the market got down to around 2800 at the VAL. Looking at the range bar chart on the left, you can see the benefit of using range bars as the chop is not there, just the steady down move. I have divided the MP chart into the two distributions we have had so far today. My vision from before the market opened was ful filled and exceeded
. As soon as price hit the single prints of the 29th, it went right down the zipper in a relentless but orderly trade. I took profits as usual but ran out of bullets at 2760. I was not too happy as I watch the market continue downwards. Order flow on both my indicators were clear so I tried to correct my mistake and went short again as 2742 was broken with double prints. The market finally started going sideways and I covered the whole piece at 2724. Fantastic day. In retrospect, I should have held onto the last 1/3 until the 2730 ish area where some buying came in. K. was in the trade but got out wayyyy too early at 2790 but I was very proud to see she used another technique to re-enter on confirmed pull backs which she did at 2780, and 2738 taking 10 ticks out on each trade. I'll talk about this style of trading more in another post.
Without that envisioning it was a much harder day as K. discovered. Seeing this vision takes a bit of time and experience. But there are ways to correct yourself as K. did.
the harder I work, the luckier I get
The European time zone for me, is the best time zone as it straddles the most active markets.
Lots of moves now begin in the European morning before the U.S. wakes up. Many U.S. traders now have alarms so that if key support and resistance areas are breached, they wake up to trade. Why? Well the markets are continually changing. Now a days, for the stock indices, if you miss THE move of the day then you have missed the only good move of the day.
In the European morning, I trade the Eurex's Dow Euro 50 future because of its liquidity - more than 1 million contracts a day. The eMini S&P is getting more liquid at that time of day but nowhere near the Eurex contract until closer to the RTH open.
Liquidity is important for me as it gives a better read of Order Flow.
Another reason to get up early is there are days when you know the odds are that we will get a two way rotational day and if you start early you can be earning with relatively little risk for 14 hours instead of just 6 and a half.
Lots of moves now begin in the European morning before the U.S. wakes up. Many U.S. traders now have alarms so that if key support and resistance areas are breached, they wake up to trade. Why? Well the markets are continually changing. Now a days, for the stock indices, if you miss THE move of the day then you have missed the only good move of the day.
In the European morning, I trade the Eurex's Dow Euro 50 future because of its liquidity - more than 1 million contracts a day. The eMini S&P is getting more liquid at that time of day but nowhere near the Eurex contract until closer to the RTH open.
Liquidity is important for me as it gives a better read of Order Flow.
Another reason to get up early is there are days when you know the odds are that we will get a two way rotational day and if you start early you can be earning with relatively little risk for 14 hours instead of just 6 and a half.
Finish the story about "!'m 38 bid and ask for 100, What do you want to do?" I didn't finish the story because I was only interested in my own punchline about managing the trade. However, looks like I was wrong. The rest of the story was quite relevant. I sold 10 lots. Most locals like to go short rather than go long as you make your profit quicker. I covered my 10 at 35. The Big Local bought at 35 along with me (or was it really me buying along with him) as a BUY order came in from a broker who we knew filled for one of the funds. He sold his back at 39. We BOTH made money taking opposite positions. TRADE MANAGEMENT
Managing trade
This post is about Money Management.
One day when I was down on the floor in the Bund pit there was a big local (big = he traded large size) who was bored and stood in my face and said: " I'm 38 bid and ask for 100. What do you want to do?" He was saying he would buy or sell 100 contracts at 38 and he didn't care which. He knew that all he needed to do was to get the trade on and then manage it. This reminded me of what I had learned from Pete Steidlemayer (inventor of the Market Profile). Pete told me: "Just get the trade on and then manage it". All experienced traders know that trade management is the most important part of trading.
But what is Managing the Trade or Money Management? Basically, it's how you exit the trade. Not just a stop loss but the plan of how you exit at a profit and at a loss. See the word "plan" in bold? I know my exit plan before I put the trade on. Its programmed into my trade platform. But I amend my plan as I go along to fit the Order Flow but always staying within the mathematical parameters I have calculated to make sure that my edge makes me a profit over time.
As I said earlier, I scale out of trades. This way, I am fairly sure of a profit on at least part of my trade. I can also adjust the targets on the second and third parts so that if the trade runs, I can maximize the profits.
Another way to trade is to trade larger size and exit the whole position at the same time. This way, you are getting a profit on the whole position.
Which method my daughter finally chooses will depend on the maths of her trade as well as her comfort zone.
One day when I was down on the floor in the Bund pit there was a big local (big = he traded large size) who was bored and stood in my face and said: " I'm 38 bid and ask for 100. What do you want to do?" He was saying he would buy or sell 100 contracts at 38 and he didn't care which. He knew that all he needed to do was to get the trade on and then manage it. This reminded me of what I had learned from Pete Steidlemayer (inventor of the Market Profile). Pete told me: "Just get the trade on and then manage it". All experienced traders know that trade management is the most important part of trading.
But what is Managing the Trade or Money Management? Basically, it's how you exit the trade. Not just a stop loss but the plan of how you exit at a profit and at a loss. See the word "plan" in bold? I know my exit plan before I put the trade on. Its programmed into my trade platform. But I amend my plan as I go along to fit the Order Flow but always staying within the mathematical parameters I have calculated to make sure that my edge makes me a profit over time.
As I said earlier, I scale out of trades. This way, I am fairly sure of a profit on at least part of my trade. I can also adjust the targets on the second and third parts so that if the trade runs, I can maximize the profits.
Another way to trade is to trade larger size and exit the whole position at the same time. This way, you are getting a profit on the whole position.
Which method my daughter finally chooses will depend on the maths of her trade as well as her comfort zone.
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